AST SpaceMobile Q2 2026: a $125.9M write-off, and pre-network revenue

AST SpaceMobile is building a constellation of very large satellites intended to connect ordinary, unmodified mobile phones directly to space. It is one of the most technically ambitious things being attempted in orbit, and the quarter just reported contains a genuine engineering milestone: six satellites launched inside fifty days, taking the constellation to 13 spacecraft.

It also contains a loss of $0.77 per share against a consensus near $0.26–0.29 — a miss of roughly three times. That headline is the least informative number in the release, and the reason is a single line item.

Did AST SpaceMobile issue guidance for Q2 2026?

No — AST SpaceMobile gave no quarterly revenue or earnings guidance for Q2 2026 in its May 11, 2026 8-K; its only quantitative revenue target was the full-year 2026 range of $150.0–200.0 million, which it said it was “on track” to achieve in both that filing and the August 10, 2026 8-K. So the quarter can only be measured against the year-ago quarter: revenue rose to $31.5 million from $1.2 million, and the loss per Class A share widened to $(0.77) from $(0.41). The first half’s $46.3 million leaves roughly $103.7–153.7 million for the second half to reach that full-year range (our arithmetic).

The loss is mostly one write-off

Q2 2026 operating expenses	Amount
Engineering services costs	$87.3M
General and administrative	$63.9M
Loss on involuntary conversion	$125.9M
Depreciation and amortization	$20.7M
Cost of revenues — products	$22.4M
Research and development	$7.8M
Cost of revenues — services	$1.2M
Total	$329.1M

“Loss on involuntary conversion” is the accounting term for an asset destroyed rather than sold. In this case it is BlueBird 7, launched in April 2026 on the third flight of Blue Origin’s New Glenn. The vehicle’s upper stage did not perform as intended and left the satellite in an orbit too low to sustain; the spacecraft separated and powered on, but could not raise itself, and was deorbited.

The company’s own bridge from the prior quarter makes the point cleanly: total operating expenses rose $165.0 million sequentially, from $164.1 million in Q1 to $329.1 million — and $125.9 million of that increase is the write-off. Strip it out and operating expenses rose about $39 million on revenue that more than doubled.

Two things follow, and they pull in opposite directions.

It is largely recoverable. The satellite was insured. The cash-flow statement shows $21.6 million of insurance proceeds already received in the first half. That is a fraction of $125.9 million, and the remainder is a claim, not cash — but it means the economic loss is smaller than the accounting one, and probably materially so.

It is not free. Insurance replaces the money, not the satellite, the launch slot, or the build time embedded in it. A constellation business is a race between capital and time, and BB7 cost time on an asset the company had already finished.

What the $31.5 million of revenue actually is

Revenue grew from $1.2 million a year ago to $31.5 million. That is a 27-fold increase, which is a number worth ignoring: the base was rounding error. The useful question is what the revenue is made of.

The filing answers it directly: second-quarter revenue was “driven by gateway deliveries and U.S. Government milestones met.”

	Revenue	Cost of revenue	Gross margin
Products	$24.4M	$22.4M	8.3%
Services	$7.1M	$1.2M	83.6%
Total	$31.5M	$23.6M	25.2%

Three-quarters of the revenue is products — ground gateway equipment and hardware delivered to partners and government customers — and it earned an 8.3% gross margin. That is a pass-through business, close to cost. The high-margin line is services, at 83.6%, and it is $7.1 million.

This matters because of what the market is buying. AST SpaceMobile’s thesis is a recurring, high-margin service: mobile network operators paying to extend coverage to their own subscribers via satellite. That business has not started. What has started is selling the ground equipment those operators will need, roughly at cost, plus hitting milestones on government contracts.

To be fair to the company, that is exactly what should be happening at this stage, and it is a leading indicator of the real thing: gateways get delivered before the service they support. But revenue of $31.5 million at a 25% blended margin is not the network earning money. Against engineering services costs alone of $87.3 million — 2.8 times total revenue — the operating economics are still entirely pre-commercial.

The guidance arithmetic is the tightest number in the release

Management reaffirmed full-year 2026 revenue guidance of $150 million to $200 million. Set that against what has actually been delivered.

	Revenue
Q1 2026 (H1 total less Q2)	~$14.7M
Q2 2026	$31.5M
H1 2026 total	$46.3M
Implied H2 to reach the low end	~$103.7M
Implied H2 to reach the high end	~$153.7M

The second half has to produce between 2.2 and 3.3 times the entire first half, in two quarters. On a per-quarter basis that means averaging roughly $51.9 million to hit $150 million — 65% above Q2 — or roughly $76.9 million to hit $200 million, which is 144% above Q2.

Management has said the year is weighted toward Q4, so the shape is acknowledged. And the mechanism is plausible: gateway deliveries and government milestones are lumpy by nature, and the company points to more than $125 million of US government awards plus three further awards it describes as carrying over $100 million of funded near-term value across 2026–2027. Lumpy revenue can arrive in a lump.

But it is worth being precise about what “on track to achieve full year 2026 revenue guidance” means when 69% to 77% of the year’s revenue still has to land in the final two quarters — 69% if the year comes in at the bottom of the range, 77% at the top. This is the single line in the release most likely to be revised, and the Q3 report is where it gets tested.

Capital is going out faster than anything else in this business

First half 2026	Amount
Net cash used in operating activities	$(145.2)M
Purchase of property and equipment	$(859.2)M
Capital advances to Ligado	$(100.0)M
Purchase of spectrum intangibles	$(42.1)M
Insurance proceeds from BB7	+$21.6M
Proceeds from debt	+$1,060.6M

Capital expenditure of $859.2 million in six months is roughly six times the operating cash burn, and roughly eighteen times half-year revenue. That is the correct shape for a company manufacturing a satellite constellation — the money goes into spacecraft, not into losses — but it is the number that decides the outcome, not the income statement.

The balance sheet is built for it. Cash and equivalents stood at $2.288 billion at 30 June, and the company reports over $3.7 billion of pro forma cash including restricted cash and the $1.150 billion of 1.625% convertible senior notes raised in July at an effective conversion price of $149.20, which it describes as effective dilution of under 2%. Gross capitalised property and equipment has reached about $2.3 billion.

The call put third-quarter capex at $350–425 million and adjusted operating expenses excluding cost of revenues at $105–115 million. At that rate the July raise buys roughly two to three quarters of construction.

A structural detail that changes the reported loss

The reported loss per share is $(0.77), from a net loss attributable to common stockholders of $230.9 million. But the loss the whole enterprise generated was $299.9 million; $69.0 million of it was allocated to non-controlling interests.

That is the company’s Up-C structure doing what it does. It is not a trick — the allocation is correct, and it reflects that a large economic stake in the operating entity sits outside the Class A shares. It does mean that the per-share loss understates the total cost of running the business by about 23% in this quarter, and that anyone modelling cash burn should work from the $299.9 million figure, not the $230.9 million one.

The share count is also moving. Weighted-average Class A shares rose from 242.0 million to 299.1 million, up 23.6% year over year. Accumulated deficit reached $1.254 billion.

What management put on the record

Item	Company figure
Satellites in orbit	13, with BlueBirds 8–13 launched in the quarter — six inside 50 days
Next up	BlueBirds 14, 15 and 16 “ready to ship shortly”; BB17 through BB46 in production
Constellation target	Roughly 45 satellites in orbit by early 2027 (per the earnings call)
Production rate	About six satellites per month (per the earnings call)
Launches booked	Ten, with two providers, targeting a cadence of every one to two months (per the earnings call)
Revenue backlog	Approximately $1.30 billion
Partners	60+ mobile network operators covering over 3 billion subscribers
Government	Over $125 million of aggregate US government awards
Gateways	Nearly 50 in various stages of completion, installation and planning
Spectrum	Targeting ~100 MHz of access in the US and 60+ MHz globally, market by market
Commercial service	Preparing to initiate beta services with select strategic partners

The bear case, stated fairly

1. Revenue missed, at $31.5 million against a consensus in the $34–35 million range, in a quarter whose revenue was largely a matter of delivery timing.
2. Three-quarters of revenue carries an 8.3% gross margin. The recurring, high-margin service the equity story rests on has not begun.
3. Full-year guidance requires the second half to be 2.2–3.3 times the first half. That is the most fragile commitment in the release.
4. BB7 cost schedule as well as money. Insurance replaces the capital; it does not replace the satellite or the launch slot.
5. Capex of $859 million in six months against $46 million of half-year revenue means the funding cycle, not the income statement, is the risk.
6. Dilution is continuous — the share count is up 23.6% year over year, on top of a July convertible — and the per-share loss understates the enterprise loss by roughly 23% because of the Up-C allocation.
7. The hardest milestones are still ahead: beta service, then commercial service, then enough satellites for continuous coverage.

The bull case is equally concrete. Thirteen satellites are in orbit and six of them went up inside fifty days, which is the first evidence that this company can deploy at industrial cadence. Production runs through BlueBird 46. Backlog is about $1.3 billion. There are 60-plus operator partners covering three billion subscribers, a spectrum position being assembled deliberately, and government demand that management expects to become a recurring multi-billion-dollar annual opportunity from 2027. And with over $3.7 billion of pro forma cash, the constellation can be built without needing the market’s permission again soon.

What to check at the Q3 report

• Revenue against roughly $52 million. That is the quarterly average needed for the low end of the full-year guide, and Q3 is the last quarter with room to correct before Q4 has to carry everything.
• Whether the $150–200 million range is narrowed, reaffirmed or cut. A narrowing to the bottom half is the most likely first sign of slippage.
• The product/service revenue split and their separate margins. Services at 83.6% on $7.1 million is the seed of the actual business; watch whether it grows faster than the 8.3%-margin hardware.
• Satellites in orbit against 13, and the path to ~45. Thirty-two more spacecraft by early 2027 needs launches roughly every one to two months to hold.
• Beta service. Named partners, named markets, and whether it starts in 2026 as indicated.
• Remaining BB7 insurance recovery beyond the $21.6 million already received.
• Capex against the $350–425 million guided for Q3, and how much of the $3.7 billion pro forma cash remains after it.

The read

The quarter’s headline loss is not the story, and treating a $125.9 million write-off of an insured satellite as a three-times earnings miss tells you almost nothing about the business. What the filing does tell you is more useful and less comfortable: AST SpaceMobile is executing on the hard engineering — thirteen satellites, six launched in fifty days, production running through BB46 — while the revenue that exists is low-margin hardware and government milestones rather than the network service the valuation is built on, and the full-year guide now leans on a second half that must be more than double the first.

For anyone holding ASTS, the disciplined view is that this remains a construction project with a stock attached. The numbers that matter are satellites in orbit, capex against cash, and when service revenue starts to grow faster than product revenue. Quarterly EPS, in a company writing off insured spacecraft and capitalising two billion dollars of hardware, is close to noise.

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Sources and method. Company figures — total revenue of $31.520 million, split $24.428 million products and $7.092 million services against $0.050 million and $1.106 million a year earlier; cost of revenues of $22.402 million (products) and $1.165 million (services); engineering services costs of $87.286 million, general and administrative of $63.901 million, research and development of $7.768 million, depreciation and amortisation of $20.664 million, the $125.911 million loss on involuntary conversion and total operating expenses of $329.097 million; net loss before allocation to non-controlling interest of $299.919 million, net loss attributable to common stockholders of $230.909 million and $(0.77) per share against $(0.41); weighted-average Class A shares of 299,061,662 against 241,985,507; accumulated deficit of $1.2536 billion; cash and cash equivalents of $2.288 billion and over $3.7 billion of pro forma cash including restricted cash; the July 2026 issue of $1.150 billion of 1.625% convertible senior notes at an effective conversion price of $149.20; half-year operating cash outflow of $145.212 million, property and equipment purchases of $859.215 million, $100.0 million of capital advances to Ligado, $42.103 million of spectrum intangibles and $21.595 million of insurance proceeds received from the BB7 launch; total operating expenses of $164.1 million in Q1 2026 and adjusted operating expenses of $119.1 million in Q2 against $91.2 million in Q1; approximately $2.3 billion of gross capitalised property and equipment; 13 satellites in orbit with BlueBirds 8–13 launched in the quarter and 14–16 ready to ship; revenue backlog of approximately $1.30 billion; 60+ MNO partners covering over 3 billion subscribers; over $125 million of US government awards; nearly 50 gateways; the spectrum targets; and full-year 2026 revenue guidance of $150.0–200.0 million — are AST SpaceMobile’s own disclosures in Exhibit 99.1 to the Form 8-K filed 2026-08-10 for the quarter ended 2026-06-30. These were read directly from the filing on SEC EDGAR, which is linked above.

Attributed to the earnings call rather than the filing: the ~45-satellites-by-early-2027 target, the roughly six-satellites-per-month production rate, the ten booked launches across two providers and the one-to-two-month cadence, third-quarter capex guidance of $350–425 million and adjusted operating expenses excluding cost of revenues of $105–115 million, the weighting of full-year revenue toward Q4, the three additional government awards carrying over $100 million of funded near-term value, and management’s characterisation of government revenue as a recurring multi-billion-dollar annual opportunity from 2027.

Not company figures, and attributed accordingly: consensus estimates, which were reported inconsistently — revenue consensus appears as $34.40 million (24/7 Wall St.) and $35.2 million (Investing.com), and the expected loss per share as $(0.29) and $(0.26) respectively, so both are given as ranges. This piece makes no claim about the share-price reaction. The circumstances of the BlueBird 7 loss — an upper-stage anomaly on the third New Glenn flight in April 2026 leaving the satellite in too low an orbit to sustain, after which it was deorbited — come from the company’s April statement and contemporaneous coverage, both linked above.

The full-year 2026 revenue range in force for the quarter comes from Exhibit 99.1 to the Form 8-K filed 2026-05-11, linked above; neither that release nor its Exhibit 99.2 presentation gave a quarterly revenue or earnings figure. No consensus estimate is included in the guidance answer above: whether the quarter beat or missed is judged there only against the year-ago quarter, because AST SpaceMobile issued no quarterly guidance.

Our arithmetic, labelled as such: the Q1 2026 revenue figure of approximately $14.7 million, derived by subtracting Q2 from the disclosed half-year total of $46.255 million (note that some coverage quotes approximately $15.8 million for Q1, and we have used the figure implied by this filing); the product, service and blended gross margins of 8.3%, 83.6% and 25.2%; the implied second-half revenue of roughly $103.7–153.7 million and the 2.2–3.3× multiple of the first half, together with the ~$51.9 million and ~$76.9 million quarterly averages and the 65% and 144% increases over Q2 that they imply; the observation that engineering services costs alone are 2.8× total revenue; the ~23% by which the per-share loss understates the enterprise loss because of the non-controlling-interest allocation; the 23.6% year-over-year increase in weighted-average shares; and the roughly $39 million sequential increase in operating expenses excluding the write-off. These are approximations built on disclosed figures, not reported numbers. The interpretation — that the headline miss is dominated by an insured, recoverable write-off, that current revenue is pre-commercial hardware rather than network service, and that the full-year guide is the most fragile commitment in the release — is our analysis, not a company statement, and is not a forecast.

Related: Rocket Lab Q2 2026, which reported the same evening and sells launches to this industry; SpaceX Q2 2026, the other constellation business spending far more than it earns; and Hims & Hers Q2 2026, the third of the three reports that night.

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